Nepal’s Political Crisis & Instability in India’s Neighbourhood
Gen Z–led protests against a sweeping social media ban escalated into nationwide unrest, casualties and arson, culminating in PM K.P. Sharma Oli’s resignation and a dissolved parliament—exposing deep structural fragilities in Nepal’s polity with spillovers for India’s neighbourhood strategy.
Introduction
Context & Background
Key Points
- •Immediate Triggers: 26-platform social media ban (Facebook, X, YouTube, etc.) to curb misinformation/cybercrime backfired, catalysing Gen Z street protests, violent clashes and PM Oli’s resignation.
- •Underlying Drivers: High youth unemployment (>20%), remittance dependence, anti-corruption sentiment, and coalition churn (NC, CPN-UML, Maoists) created a combustible setting.
- •Institutional Fragility: Parliament dissolution, splintered parties, and weak coalition discipline impair policy continuity; federal devolution is still politically contested.
- •Identity & Federal Tensions: Madhesi representation and boundary issues remain unsettled; pro-monarchy mobilisations signal ideological polarisation.
- •Security-Civil Liberties Trade-off: The sweeping platform ban raised constitutional questions on speech and association; forceful policing escalated confrontations.
- •Political System—Historical Arc: Rana rule → Panchayat (party-less) → 1990 constitutional monarchy → 2006 peace accord → 2008 republic → 2015 federal constitution; instability persisted through transitions.
- •Regional Geopolitics: Nepal’s balancing between India and China (BRI) sharpens during crises; fiscal and infrastructure dependencies can tilt alignments.
- •Economic Stakes: Trade (~US$9 bn with India), hydro-connectivity, cross-border power/roads/rail, and tourism face disruption risks.
- •Border Management: The 1,770 km open border enables livelihoods but raises smuggling, infiltration, refugee concerns when political order breaks down.
- •Information Ecosystem: Platform shutdowns hinder disinformation—but also impede relief, accountability and journalistic functions; pushes dissent into streets.
- •Comparative Lens (UPSC mains): Contrast executive overreach vs constitutionalism, coalition design, federal grievance resolution, and youth bulge politics.
Related Entities
Impact & Significance
- •India’s Security: Open border complicates smuggling/terror/refugee management; requires intelligence coordination and humane border protocols.
- •Connectivity & Economy: Disruptions imperil highways, rail links, power trade and Indian investments; supply chains in UP/Bihar can face shocks.
- •Strategic Competition: Crisis windows enable external influence; India must balance stabilisation support with respect for Nepal’s sovereignty.
- •People-to-People Ties: Diaspora, tourism and cultural circuits are sensitive; safety advisories and corridor continuity matter.
Challenges & Criticism
- •Consensus Deficits: Parties divided on constitutional arrangements and federal design; coalition incentives remain short-term.
- •Governance Capacity: Frequent cabinet churn and politicisation of institutions slow reforms and crisis management.
- •Civil Liberties Concerns: Broad platform bans risk rights erosion and digital economy harm.
- •Externalisation Risk: Domestic actors may instrumentalise India–China competition, complicating mediation.
Future Outlook
- •A caretaker/interim arrangement is likely before a structured electoral path; dialogue with aggrieved groups is essential.
- •Stability hinges on coalition compacts, youth employment measures, and calibrated digital governance (harm minimisation without sweeping bans).
- •For India: prioritise Neighbourhood First with low-visibility, high-impact assistance—energy trade, transit facilitation, and skill/employment partnerships.
UPSC Relevance
- • GS-2: Neighbourhood, India–Nepal relations, regional groupings, diaspora, border management.
- • Ethics/Essay: Civil liberties vs security, youth bulge governance, coalition stability.
- • Security: Open border dynamics, refugee management, information controls.
Sample Questions
Prelims
With reference to Nepal’s current crisis, consider the following statements:
1. Nepal’s 2015 Constitution established a federal republic with seven provinces.
2. The open India–Nepal border is about 1,770 km long.
3. Remittances are a minor component of Nepal’s economy.
Answer: Option 1, Option 2
Explanation: Statements 1 and 2 are correct. Remittances form a significant share of Nepal’s GDP and labour market.
Mains
Analyse the 2025 political crisis in Nepal. How should India calibrate its response to safeguard security, connectivity, and people-to-people ties while respecting Nepal’s sovereignty?
Introduction: Nepal’s Gen Z–led protests after a sweeping social media ban triggered regime collapse, revealing structural coalition fragility and identity-federal stresses.
Body:
• Drivers: Platform ban; unemployment; anti-corruption; coalition splits; Madhesi issues; pro-monarchy rallies; civil liberties concerns.
• Implications for India: Border security; trade/connectivity disruptions; strategic competition with China; diaspora/tourism safety; development cooperation delays.
• Policy Options: Quiet diplomacy with all factions; humanitarian and stabilisation support; targeted border intelligence and humane protocols; fast-tracking power trade and logistics corridors; scholarships/skills for youth; avoid prescriptive positions; coordinate with SAARC/BIMSTEC where useful.
Conclusion: A sovereignty-sensitive, development-first posture that protects open-border benefits and reduces crisis externalities best serves India’s interests and regional stability.